Markets for 11 aug 09

Slowly & steadily nifty is making its way towards the critical level of 4380 which for sure will be breached to induce a bearish sentiment all around which will quickly liquidate weaker hands and after that only nifty will move up. On monday nifty breached the critical level at 29th july low of 4420 and went down till 4400 to close on an averaging basis at 4438. But interestingly, cleaner index the sensex did not breach july 29th lows of 14888 and could fall only till 14902. Perhaps tuesday may see sensex weaker than nifty . But one thing is certain that if sensex and sensex only breaches 22 july lows of 14787 and closes below it, then one can safely assume that the markets are forming a bigger corrective flat and there is every probability of sensex and nifty testing july lows of 13210 & 3919 before the end of august.

Harassing news on likely hood of draught in certain parts of the country coupled with swine flu cases occupying maximum time of financial news channels can easily take the markets in the desired direction of these financial news channels in coming days. This together with the planets in the heavens adding their quota of misery forces one to ruthlessly short on every rise of the market. The shorting mood was so ferocious that even a gap up open on monday morning could not survive for more than a few seconds and the end of the day looked as if the bulls were mercilessly hammered out of shape by the bears.

For trading on tuesday, the markets may show a well deserved bounce or at least a pause after the 3 black crows formation in daily eod candle charts. Nifty although may not decisively breach 4380, liquidation of weaker hands may commence from 4400 downwards. With kindness of rain gods, nifty may move up to find initial resistance around 4452 to 4464 levels. Only a decisive breach and sustaining above 4464 can bring back the whipped away bulls to laboriously pull nifty towards 4500 or 4512 pivot levels to hand it over to the bears again. Not withstanding this aspect of bearishness , the markets are highly oversold and may show a sharp bounce any time.