US markets as was expected closed absolutely flat so also was brazil. European markets which close earlier than us markets were 1% up. Asian markets after the big rise of monday have opened mildly weak & may close flat to mildly weak .
For indian markets, expect a flat to mildly weaker opening. The trading range is likely to be confined within the mondays trading range of4656 to 4596 to finally close flat or mildly weak. Unless there are further +ve cues from us markets, the chances of further up move beyond 4700 looks to be highly remote before expiry.
For intraday trading on tuesday, in case nifty falls below 4625, the low of the pin bar in the hourly chart above, chances of further fall towards 4596 to 4588 or even lower levels may be expected. Similarly on the higher side a rise to breach 4656 can nullify this bearish pin bar. Most likely nifty is likely to trade in a tight range with a negative bias to harass option buyers & reward option writers.
Tuesday, August 25, 2009
Markets for 25 aug 09
The markets did more than it was expected out of them. Nifty has decisively crossed both 50 dma at 4400 & now 20 dma at 4537 and also on monday it breached and closed above 4619,the b wave of the abc correction from the high of 4731 till the low of 4353.generally when the upward thrust crosses the top of the b wave of the previous correction it generally moves up to shoot past the previous high as a new up wave. So with a little bit of pause here & there one should generally expect nifty to shoot past the 4th aug high of 4731 to much higher levels in coming days with the expiry posing as a minor hindrance to the up move past 4731.
As per pure technicals, the markets look extremely bullish having closed above the neck line of the larger w formation with the base around 4350 levels and neck line around 4619 levels which over a period of couple of days should take nifty up by 270 points from the neck line towards 4890 levels if not before te expiry, certainly within a few days after the expiry. The neck line around 4620 levels will now be a support to invite buying interest. The 3 months of flat type consolidation after the election verdict spurt looks to be over and in all probabilities one can see nifty testing 5000 levels in september. With andrews pitch fork median line moving up day by day , it will attract nifty towards it now around 4700+ levels very soon and if things things move as they are now, purely based on technicals, one should not be surprised to see an expiry around 4700+ levels on the coming thursday
FOR INTRADAY TRADING ON TUESDAY, NIFTY HAS STRONG SUPPORT AROUND 4600 TO 4590 LEVELS THAT MAY INVITE GOOD BUYING INTEREST. ON THE HIGHER SIDE, IT MAY FIND INITIAL RESISTANCE AROUND MONDAYS HIGH OF 4656 & THEN 4680 LEVELS, ABOVE WHICH IT MAY JUST TRY TO SNEAK INTO 4700 LEVELS THAT MAY INVITE HEAVY PROFIT BOOKING. US MARKETS AFTER 4 CONSECUTIVE DAYS OF RISE HAS PAUSED FOR A DAY OR TWO TO SHOOT UP AGAIN AFTER THE PAUSE.
As per pure technicals, the markets look extremely bullish having closed above the neck line of the larger w formation with the base around 4350 levels and neck line around 4619 levels which over a period of couple of days should take nifty up by 270 points from the neck line towards 4890 levels if not before te expiry, certainly within a few days after the expiry. The neck line around 4620 levels will now be a support to invite buying interest. The 3 months of flat type consolidation after the election verdict spurt looks to be over and in all probabilities one can see nifty testing 5000 levels in september. With andrews pitch fork median line moving up day by day , it will attract nifty towards it now around 4700+ levels very soon and if things things move as they are now, purely based on technicals, one should not be surprised to see an expiry around 4700+ levels on the coming thursday
FOR INTRADAY TRADING ON TUESDAY, NIFTY HAS STRONG SUPPORT AROUND 4600 TO 4590 LEVELS THAT MAY INVITE GOOD BUYING INTEREST. ON THE HIGHER SIDE, IT MAY FIND INITIAL RESISTANCE AROUND MONDAYS HIGH OF 4656 & THEN 4680 LEVELS, ABOVE WHICH IT MAY JUST TRY TO SNEAK INTO 4700 LEVELS THAT MAY INVITE HEAVY PROFIT BOOKING. US MARKETS AFTER 4 CONSECUTIVE DAYS OF RISE HAS PAUSED FOR A DAY OR TWO TO SHOOT UP AGAIN AFTER THE PAUSE.
Monday, August 24, 2009
Morning update at 8 am 24 aug 09
Dows 155 point rise coupled with a break out move of s&p500 to close above the level of 1025 has given the right impetus to the world markets for another bout of sharp up move towards fresh august highs. Brazil was up by 1.6% and european markets were up from 2 to 3% with uk ftse closing up by 2%. Asian markets have opened with big gap & may continue to inch up in coming days.
For indian markets, one may see a big gap up opening around 4600 levels but whether the critical level at 4619 will be decisively crossed today or not has to be seen. Traders may wait for any intraday decline to enter long positions in their favorite stocks. Option traders holding long positions in calls may hold the calls and write calls of 4700 on market rise. Put writers of 4400 & below should book profit on shorted puts as nse index reaches 4600 levels. Put buyers may quit early or buy calls of 4600.fresh traders may wait for the intraday decline in index to buy september futures and 4700 calls & hold.
Stocks in the sectors of metals, cement, oil & gas exploration, power and pharma which had seen sharpest fall or were subdued during last week, may have the sharpest rise during the current rise. Traders & investors may accumulate these on every decline for very good gains in the near term.
For indian markets, one may see a big gap up opening around 4600 levels but whether the critical level at 4619 will be decisively crossed today or not has to be seen. Traders may wait for any intraday decline to enter long positions in their favorite stocks. Option traders holding long positions in calls may hold the calls and write calls of 4700 on market rise. Put writers of 4400 & below should book profit on shorted puts as nse index reaches 4600 levels. Put buyers may quit early or buy calls of 4600.fresh traders may wait for the intraday decline in index to buy september futures and 4700 calls & hold.
Stocks in the sectors of metals, cement, oil & gas exploration, power and pharma which had seen sharpest fall or were subdued during last week, may have the sharpest rise during the current rise. Traders & investors may accumulate these on every decline for very good gains in the near term.
Markets for 24 aug 09
The expiry week opens with the back drop of bullish break out in the us markets on friday night and also a last hour bullish break out in the nifty above the resistance of 4495 to reach 4539.on the basis of pure technicals, the markets certainly look extremely bullish for monday & should at least take nifty towards 4595 to 4600 levels if there are no nasty surprises from asian markets. The reverse h&s formation as you see in the chart above can take nifty by at least 140 points from the break out point of 4495 towards the target of 4636 in next 1 or 2 days with the major resistance of 4619 posing a threat for some time.
For intraday trading on monday, with bullish asian opening, expect a gap up open around 4555 to 4568 levels followed by the as usual marking time in a flat range for 1 or 2 hours before deciding further course of action. In case of nasty surprise from asian markets, nifty finds strong support around 4509 followed by 4494 and finally 4469 that will bring in strong buying interest. On the higher side nifty faces initial resistance around 4555 followed by 4569. A decisive breach and sustaining over 4569 can take nifty towards 4595 or even 4619 which is quite possible if asian markets & sgx nifty do not play the spoil sports at the beginning. A decisive close above 20 dma around 4540 can add further strength to nifty for another big rise in coming days.
As per the chart above, andrew pitchfork median line (marked in blue) goes around 4640 to 4650. Nifty having successfully taken support at the lower fork around 4400+ levels should generally eye for testing the upwards moving median line around 4600 to 4650 levels shortly. Long term investors should keep on accumulating for good gains in the long term. Swing traders now may continue to hold their longs with a close below 4353 to 4333 as their quitting point.
Although us markets have had a consecutive 4th day of rise on friday and are ripe for a pause that may induce asian operators to take advance action on monday, yet the markets definitely are in for some more up move this week. With s&p500 having shown some sort of a break out momentum on friday, there is every possibility of some more up move in us markets in coming days after the expected pause that may induce a bullish momentum in other asian as well as indian markets in coming days.
For intraday trading on monday, with bullish asian opening, expect a gap up open around 4555 to 4568 levels followed by the as usual marking time in a flat range for 1 or 2 hours before deciding further course of action. In case of nasty surprise from asian markets, nifty finds strong support around 4509 followed by 4494 and finally 4469 that will bring in strong buying interest. On the higher side nifty faces initial resistance around 4555 followed by 4569. A decisive breach and sustaining over 4569 can take nifty towards 4595 or even 4619 which is quite possible if asian markets & sgx nifty do not play the spoil sports at the beginning. A decisive close above 20 dma around 4540 can add further strength to nifty for another big rise in coming days.
As per the chart above, andrew pitchfork median line (marked in blue) goes around 4640 to 4650. Nifty having successfully taken support at the lower fork around 4400+ levels should generally eye for testing the upwards moving median line around 4600 to 4650 levels shortly. Long term investors should keep on accumulating for good gains in the long term. Swing traders now may continue to hold their longs with a close below 4353 to 4333 as their quitting point.
Although us markets have had a consecutive 4th day of rise on friday and are ripe for a pause that may induce asian operators to take advance action on monday, yet the markets definitely are in for some more up move this week. With s&p500 having shown some sort of a break out momentum on friday, there is every possibility of some more up move in us markets in coming days after the expected pause that may induce a bullish momentum in other asian as well as indian markets in coming days.
Friday, August 21, 2009
Morning update at 8 am 21 aug 09
Last night dow was up 72 points the 3rd consecutive day of rise which has now entirely retraced the 200 point fall on monday & is looking up now after generating the fear across the world markets that a big down side correction was due. Well, after 3 days of rise, it still has the friday night in its kitty to prove the point. European markets were up by 1.5% with uk ftse closing up by 1.4%.asian markets after a good rise yesterday have just opened mixed and may close mixed to +ve for the day.
For indian markets expect a flattish to mildly bullish opening. Initial range between 4444 to 4464 will play an important role. A decisive breach on any side may show a good move on that side. There is every possibility that the day has a good upside closing today to go on a buoyant note for the coming expiry week. A decisive breach of 4444 on the down side may pull nifty towards thursdays opening gap till 4422 but chances of breaching 4400 looks highly remote. Similarly a decisive cross over of 4464 can take nifty towards critical resistance around 4495 levels, a breach of which with good volume may generate a sharp up move induced by short covering. In any case, a close above 4515 can open the flood gates for another good bounce next week.
Traders may like to go light for the expiry week without any heavy carry over positions on friday & it would be wiser to start fresh on monday although the wind is blowing towards up side next week. Risky traders holding lower calls of 4400 may boldly write (short) 4600 & 4700 calls on rise of nifty towards 4500 or higher levels and if holding 4400 puts then also boldly write 4300 puts on intraday fall of markets towards 4400. Long term investors must quietly accumulate their choice stocks specially in power, oil & gas exploration & infra sectors for extremely good gains over the long term.
For indian markets expect a flattish to mildly bullish opening. Initial range between 4444 to 4464 will play an important role. A decisive breach on any side may show a good move on that side. There is every possibility that the day has a good upside closing today to go on a buoyant note for the coming expiry week. A decisive breach of 4444 on the down side may pull nifty towards thursdays opening gap till 4422 but chances of breaching 4400 looks highly remote. Similarly a decisive cross over of 4464 can take nifty towards critical resistance around 4495 levels, a breach of which with good volume may generate a sharp up move induced by short covering. In any case, a close above 4515 can open the flood gates for another good bounce next week.
Traders may like to go light for the expiry week without any heavy carry over positions on friday & it would be wiser to start fresh on monday although the wind is blowing towards up side next week. Risky traders holding lower calls of 4400 may boldly write (short) 4600 & 4700 calls on rise of nifty towards 4500 or higher levels and if holding 4400 puts then also boldly write 4300 puts on intraday fall of markets towards 4400. Long term investors must quietly accumulate their choice stocks specially in power, oil & gas exploration & infra sectors for extremely good gains over the long term.
Markets for 21 aug 09
POSITIVE OVERNIGHT DOW COUPLED WITH STRONG ASIAN MARKETS INDUCED A GAP UP BULLISH OPENING FOR INDIAN MARKETS. NIFTY OPENED GAP UP HIGH ABOVE 4460 LEVELS AND REMAINED IN THE BAND OF 4485 TO 4455 FOR MOST OF THE TIME . A SPURT TOWARDS LATER HALF TO REACH TUESDAYS HIGHS OF 4494 INVITED HEAVY PROFIT BOOKING AND FINALLY NIFTY FELL TO 4444 LEVELS TO CLOSE AROUND THE LOWEST TRADING POINT OF THE DAY THAT EASILY SIGNIFY ANOTHER RISE ON FRIDAY AT LEAST AT THE START. AFTER THE GAP UP OPEN THERE WERE HARDLY ANY TRADING OPPORTUNITY IN STOCKS TOO. FUTURES & OPTIONS REMAINED SUBDUED AFTER THE GAP UP OPEN AND ONLY CARRIED OVER POSITIONS COULD BOOK ANY PROFIT.
SINCE LAST 4 TRADING DAYS NIFTY HAS SUCCESSFULLY MANAGED TO CLOSE ABOVE THE CRITICAL 50 DMA WHICH IS A BULLISH SIGN THAT WILL BE CONFIRMED ON A DECISIVE CLOSE ABOVE THE 20 DMA AROUND 4545 LEVELS. THE RISE ON THURSDAY HAS GENERATED THE HOPES OF FURTHER REVIVAL IN THE MARKETS AS THE INDICATORS IN THE DAILY EOD CHARTS HAVE JUST STARTED TO LOOK UP AND ANOTHER UP MOVE ON FRIDAY CAN GENERATE THE HOPE OF A BULLISH COMING WEEK.
LAST WEEK ENDING 14TH AUGUST, NIFTY HAD A WEEKLY CLOSING AROUND 4580 LEVELS. SO, THERE IS EVERY POSSIBILITY OF A BOUNCE ON FRIDAY TO AT LEAST MOVE NEARER TO PREVIOUS WEEKS CLOSING LEVELS ALTHOUGH 4515 MAY BE A STRONG CLOSING RESISTANCE. IN THE INTRADAY CHART ABOVE, NIFTY FACES IMMEDIATE RESISTANCE AROUND 4494 LEVELS AND A DECISIVE CROSS OVER OF THIS CRITICAL LEVEL CAN CATAPULT IT TOWARDS 4525 TO 4535 LEVELS WHERE IT MEETS ANOTHER RESISTANCE LINE. IT HAS A STRONG SUPPORT AROUND 4444 TO 4440 LEVELS, A DECISIVE BREACH OF WHICH CAN SURELY WEAKEN NIFTY FOR ANOTHER INTRADAY PLUNGE. INTRADAY INDICATOR SLOW STOCHASTIC ALTHOUGH DROOPING DOWNWARDS BELOW THE 80% ZONE DUE TO THE LAST HOUR FALL IN NIFTY, HOWEVER WITH ANOTHER SHARP UP MOVE AT THE START IT MAY TAKE UPWARD TURN TO GIVE BULLISH INDICATION.
THE CHART PATTERN FORMED DURING LAST 5 TRADING DAYS HAS CERTAIN DISTINCT FEATURES. FIRSTLY IT HAS BEEN ABLE TO SUCCESSFULLY PROTECT THE CRITICAL SUPPORT AROUND 4350 LEVELS THUS MAKING IT A STRONG BOTTOM FOR REMAINING DAYS OF AUGUST. SECONDLY BETWEEN 18TH AND 20 AUGUST IT HAS MADE A SOME SORT OF W FORMATION WITH BREAK OUT LINE AROUND 4494 TO 4500 LEVELS. SO, A DECISIVE BREAK OUT WITH VOLUME ABOVE THE RESISTANCE LINE AT 4500 CAN EASILY TAKE NIFTY TOWARDS 4600+ LEVELS EVEN SURPASSING THE RESISTANCE LINE AT 4530. MOST LIKELY RELIANCE INDUSTRIES WHICH HAS BEEN TAKEN DOWN IN A WELL PLANNED & COORDINATED MANNER TO THREATEN ITS CRITICAL SUPPORT AT 1870, MAY BOUNCE UP WITH VIGOR & RENEWED VITALITY TO PROVIDE THAT REQUIRED IMPETUS TO NIFTY TO BREAK OUT OF 4500 LEVELS IF NOT THIS WEEK, CERTAINLY IT MAY COME TOWARDS LATER DAYS OF AUGUST MONTH MAY BE AFTER THE EXPIRY, THE DAYS TILL EXPIRY BEING RANGE BOUND TO HARASS THE OPTION BUYERS AND REWARD THE OPTION WRITERS.
FOR FRIDAYS TRADING, A DECISIVE DOWN SIDE BREACH OF 4440 MAY PLEASE THE BEARS TO SEE THE OPENING GAP OF THURSDAY GETTING FILLED TILL 4400 LEVELS AND A DECISIVE UPSIDE BREACH OF 4500 MAY PLEASE THE BULLS WHO CAN HOPE TO SEE 4535 TO 4550 LEVELS. A RANGE BOUND MOVE BETWEEN 444O TO 4500 MAY PLEASE THE OPTION WRITERS WHO DESPERATELY NEED MORE RANGE BOUND & FLAT MARKET TILL EXPIRY TO POCKET THE WRITTEN OPTION PREMIUM.
SINCE LAST 4 TRADING DAYS NIFTY HAS SUCCESSFULLY MANAGED TO CLOSE ABOVE THE CRITICAL 50 DMA WHICH IS A BULLISH SIGN THAT WILL BE CONFIRMED ON A DECISIVE CLOSE ABOVE THE 20 DMA AROUND 4545 LEVELS. THE RISE ON THURSDAY HAS GENERATED THE HOPES OF FURTHER REVIVAL IN THE MARKETS AS THE INDICATORS IN THE DAILY EOD CHARTS HAVE JUST STARTED TO LOOK UP AND ANOTHER UP MOVE ON FRIDAY CAN GENERATE THE HOPE OF A BULLISH COMING WEEK.
LAST WEEK ENDING 14TH AUGUST, NIFTY HAD A WEEKLY CLOSING AROUND 4580 LEVELS. SO, THERE IS EVERY POSSIBILITY OF A BOUNCE ON FRIDAY TO AT LEAST MOVE NEARER TO PREVIOUS WEEKS CLOSING LEVELS ALTHOUGH 4515 MAY BE A STRONG CLOSING RESISTANCE. IN THE INTRADAY CHART ABOVE, NIFTY FACES IMMEDIATE RESISTANCE AROUND 4494 LEVELS AND A DECISIVE CROSS OVER OF THIS CRITICAL LEVEL CAN CATAPULT IT TOWARDS 4525 TO 4535 LEVELS WHERE IT MEETS ANOTHER RESISTANCE LINE. IT HAS A STRONG SUPPORT AROUND 4444 TO 4440 LEVELS, A DECISIVE BREACH OF WHICH CAN SURELY WEAKEN NIFTY FOR ANOTHER INTRADAY PLUNGE. INTRADAY INDICATOR SLOW STOCHASTIC ALTHOUGH DROOPING DOWNWARDS BELOW THE 80% ZONE DUE TO THE LAST HOUR FALL IN NIFTY, HOWEVER WITH ANOTHER SHARP UP MOVE AT THE START IT MAY TAKE UPWARD TURN TO GIVE BULLISH INDICATION.
THE CHART PATTERN FORMED DURING LAST 5 TRADING DAYS HAS CERTAIN DISTINCT FEATURES. FIRSTLY IT HAS BEEN ABLE TO SUCCESSFULLY PROTECT THE CRITICAL SUPPORT AROUND 4350 LEVELS THUS MAKING IT A STRONG BOTTOM FOR REMAINING DAYS OF AUGUST. SECONDLY BETWEEN 18TH AND 20 AUGUST IT HAS MADE A SOME SORT OF W FORMATION WITH BREAK OUT LINE AROUND 4494 TO 4500 LEVELS. SO, A DECISIVE BREAK OUT WITH VOLUME ABOVE THE RESISTANCE LINE AT 4500 CAN EASILY TAKE NIFTY TOWARDS 4600+ LEVELS EVEN SURPASSING THE RESISTANCE LINE AT 4530. MOST LIKELY RELIANCE INDUSTRIES WHICH HAS BEEN TAKEN DOWN IN A WELL PLANNED & COORDINATED MANNER TO THREATEN ITS CRITICAL SUPPORT AT 1870, MAY BOUNCE UP WITH VIGOR & RENEWED VITALITY TO PROVIDE THAT REQUIRED IMPETUS TO NIFTY TO BREAK OUT OF 4500 LEVELS IF NOT THIS WEEK, CERTAINLY IT MAY COME TOWARDS LATER DAYS OF AUGUST MONTH MAY BE AFTER THE EXPIRY, THE DAYS TILL EXPIRY BEING RANGE BOUND TO HARASS THE OPTION BUYERS AND REWARD THE OPTION WRITERS.
FOR FRIDAYS TRADING, A DECISIVE DOWN SIDE BREACH OF 4440 MAY PLEASE THE BEARS TO SEE THE OPENING GAP OF THURSDAY GETTING FILLED TILL 4400 LEVELS AND A DECISIVE UPSIDE BREACH OF 4500 MAY PLEASE THE BULLS WHO CAN HOPE TO SEE 4535 TO 4550 LEVELS. A RANGE BOUND MOVE BETWEEN 444O TO 4500 MAY PLEASE THE OPTION WRITERS WHO DESPERATELY NEED MORE RANGE BOUND & FLAT MARKET TILL EXPIRY TO POCKET THE WRITTEN OPTION PREMIUM.
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