Elliott wave count for week ending 21 august 09

Elliott wave count for week ending 21 august 09

we have assumed that fresh bull move had started from 6th march low of 2539. The 1st up wave was completed on 12 june high of 4693.the 2nd wave a,b,c correction came down till 13 july low of 3919. The 3rd up wave started from the low of 3919 and on 4th august the 1st sub wave of this 3rd wave was completed with the highs around 4731 and the 2nd sub wave abc downward correction started. Most likely this 2nd down sub wave abc correction has been completed on wednesday 12 aug lows of 4360 and the 3rd sub wave of the mega 3rd up wave has started with a green hammer from the lows of 4360 levels. However there are possibilities that the 2nd sub wave is not yet complete and can again come down towards 50% retracement till 4325 or 62% retracement till 4229. A down side breach and close below 4520 followed by a fall to close below 4400 & then a decisive close below 4337 can confirm that nifty can retrace down till 4229. On the higher side a close above 4606 followed by a decisive close above 4711 can confirm that nifty is in the 3rd sub wave of the mega 3rd up wave to move towards 5000+ levels in short term.

There could be another case, where the new bull market after the completion of the 1st up wave at the 12th june high of 4693, the 2nd corrective wave is still on as a 3, 3, 5 bigger flat with 1st set of 3 down waves completed at the 13th july low of 3919, the 2nd set of 3 up waves completed on 4th aug high of 4731 & presently we are in the final 5 down leg of this flat that can go down all the way till 13th july lows of 3919 before start of the mega 3rd up wave. However the thing to be kept in mind is that as per elliott wave theory, 2nd corrective wave is generally in the form of abc zigzag as per paragraph above & the 4th corrective wave is generally a flat.