Morning update at 8 am 21 aug 09

Last night dow was up 72 points the 3rd consecutive day of rise which has now entirely retraced the 200 point fall on monday & is looking up now after generating the fear across the world markets that a big down side correction was due. Well, after 3 days of rise, it still has the friday night in its kitty to prove the point. European markets were up by 1.5% with uk ftse closing up by 1.4%.asian markets after a good rise yesterday have just opened mixed and may close mixed to +ve for the day.

For indian markets expect a flattish to mildly bullish opening. Initial range between 4444 to 4464 will play an important role. A decisive breach on any side may show a good move on that side. There is every possibility that the day has a good upside closing today to go on a buoyant note for the coming expiry week. A decisive breach of 4444 on the down side may pull nifty towards thursdays opening gap till 4422 but chances of breaching 4400 looks highly remote. Similarly a decisive cross over of 4464 can take nifty towards critical resistance around 4495 levels, a breach of which with good volume may generate a sharp up move induced by short covering. In any case, a close above 4515 can open the flood gates for another good bounce next week.

Traders may like to go light for the expiry week without any heavy carry over positions on friday & it would be wiser to start fresh on monday although the wind is blowing towards up side next week. Risky traders holding lower calls of 4400 may boldly write (short) 4600 & 4700 calls on rise of nifty towards 4500 or higher levels and if holding 4400 puts then also boldly write 4300 puts on intraday fall of markets towards 4400. Long term investors must quietly accumulate their choice stocks specially in power, oil & gas exploration & infra sectors for extremely good gains over the long term.