Weekly markets analysis for week ending 07 august 09

If one remembers the news letter during last week of may, it was mentioned that during odd years, june month had always made a higher high than the may month and july month was even higher than june month. Although nifty failed to breach the june highs of 4693,cleaner index the sensex decisively breached the june highs of 15600 to move up till 15733 to close at 15670.it is just a matter of time only for nifty to breach june highs to move up further. As per statistical data from 1997 till 2009, although this month of august also is likely to be a +ve month being an odd year of 2009 one needs to be a bit cautious during the later part of august.
Most of the world markets are on the up move having breached their earlier highs of 2009 during last week. Dow having breached the critical level of 9175 on an intraday basis has not yet been able to close above it. On friday it closed at 9171 & most likely will breach it decisively very shortly to move higher up to breach the next critical level of 9711 to move towards the magic 10000 levels in coming months. However there will be many heart breaking mid week or week end falls in dow to trim the other world indices who are becoming bulkier day by day. However markets will move up & up only over the long term with routine corrections in between.
The only threat looming large over the markets is the likely hood of a mid august crash to be induced by astrological factors. Although similar sinister planetary links between sun, jupiter, saturn, neptune & rahu have created havoc in stock markets earlier that delivered lethal blow to the stock markets, yet there are a number of occasions when almost similar planetary links have pardoned the stock markets with just a minor blip. In fact moon & sweet venus not forming a nexus with the sinister combination may mitigate the severity to a large extent. So, let us hope for he best and assume that the few days from second week of august till end third week of august pass off smoothly with just normal corrections.
Last friday, sensex making a new high for 2009 after crossing june highs of 15600 to reach 15733 without nifty making it to new yearly highs looks a bit fishy for all those who feel that since sensex has made it nifty should make it. This is is the real bull trap set up for nifty f & o traders who were half jolted when nifty crashed intraday on friday to sub 4500 levels to move up at the end of the day. Although nifty will ultimately cross the yearly highs of 4693,but not without more such intraday jolts. In any case, nifty having decisively crossed & closed above the critical levels of 4480 & 4538, most likely will move to much higher levels in coming days grappling with minor corrections in between. A decisive close above the critical level of 4693 with volume may infuse new hopes for the bulls.