Weekly markets analysis for week ending 21 august 09

Weekly markets analysis for week ending 21 august 09

finally the 2nd week of august ended following 2 massive falls on the previous thursday & friday. At one time it generated the fear that nifty may straight head towards 13th july low of 3919 as part of the larger flat formation when operators on wednesday pulled nifty down to fall below critical support at 4380 to even touch 4360.well that was it, the bulls who were silent observers till 4360 came back with a bang and hammered the bears out of shape by forming the great copy book hammer that catapulted nifty to 4610 levels very next day on thursday. Friday followed up with a routine range bound flat that may continue till monday.
Although the week ended on a +ve note compared to its previous week, yet niftys weekly high of 4619 could not cross the previous weeks high of 4731 and at the same time breached previous weeks lows of 4464 to fall till 4360, finally rising to close at 4580 higher than previous weeks closing of 4481. So unless nifty moves up further from present levels to cross august 1st weeks high of 4731, nifty may rot within the 100 point range of 4620 to 4522 till such time a break out or break down takes place for a bigger move in the direction of breach. An upside decisive break out of 4620 with good volume can pierce through the previous weeks 6th aug intraday 3 black crows, to new highs above 4731 & a decisive breach of 4520 on the down side can see a stone like fall to cover the entire gap following the hammer of 12th aug till 4444 magic levels.
Another interesting feature to be noted is that, indian markets are lagging much behind other world markets when compared with weekly closings. This weeks closing of sensex & nifty were much lower than highs of june and july 09. All most all the indices of the world had this weeks closings higher than highs of both june and july 09.us, brazil, entire europe & australian indices had this weeks closings higher than june & july highs. Even japan, korea and hong kong too had a closing higher than both june & july highs. Even china after such massive falls closed above june highs so was with singapore. Sensex and nifty which closed the week at 15411 & 4580 are still much lower than june highs of 15600 & 4693 & july highs of 15732 & 4670.so seeing these facts & figures & comparing with those of other world markets, unless the things really turn pretty bad , there is every possibility of indian markets shooting up towards 2nd half of the coming week to breach june & july highs to move towards much higher levels. The effects of scanty rain fall and bird flu have been fully digested by the markets & there are signs of much improvements in this regard. However, the adverse astrological impact which the us markets will be grappling with during the coming week may be the only dampener during the week ahead to stall any speedy progress in indian markets.